Iceland's ghost, ten years on

The anniversary nobody wanted

The timing is almost cruel. As England prepare for their World Cup 2026 knockout opener, the football calendar quietly marks ten years since Roy Hodgson's side were bundled out of a European Championship by a nation of 330,000 people. Iceland. Two goals. Goodnight. The clip has been reshared approximately one million times this week, and nobody in the England camp will pretend they haven't seen it.

Tuchel, to his credit, is not a manager who deals in comfortable narratives. He has spent the build-up to this tie making clear that DR Congo will not be treated as a formality — and given his track record in knockout football, that framing feels genuine rather than diplomatic. The question is whether the players are listening.

DR Congo are not Iceland

DR Congo are not Iceland, and the comparison only goes so far. They arrive at this World Cup as a side that qualified through one of the most competitive continental processes in the game — AFCON qualification is not a gentle stroll. They are organised, physically imposing, and will not be overawed by an England shirt. The Iceland comparison is a narrative device, not a tactical one. But narrative devices have a way of becoming self-fulfilling when a dressing room starts to believe the tie is already won.

That is the specific danger Tuchel is managing. England's squad has the quality to progress. Whether they have the focus to do it without a scare — or worse, without the kind of collapse that ends tournaments and careers — is the more interesting question.

Tuchel has not lost a knockout match yet in this tournament. He will not want DR Congo to be the footnote that defines the campaign.

What Tuchel actually needs

The manager's job this week is less about tactics than temperature. England need to be sharp enough to impose themselves early, clinical enough to kill the tie before anxiety sets in, and disciplined enough not to gift DR Congo the kind of moment that can shift a match — and a mood — in seconds.

England have the players to do all of that. They also have a history of doing none of it at exactly the wrong time.

The Iceland anniversary is not really about Iceland. It is about a pattern — the slow creep of assumption, the half-press that becomes a non-press, the loose pass that becomes a goal, the early exit that becomes a decade of memes. Tuchel knows the pattern. He has spent a career breaking them at club level. This is the first time he gets to try it with a nation's expectations on his back.

England fans will be watching the first ten minutes very carefully. So will he.