Arsenal v Chelsea: both perfect, one stays that way

Form and friction

Arsenal have won three of their last five matches, losing once and drawing once. Chelsea have won four of their last five, with one draw. Recent meetings have tilted heavily towards the home side: Arsenal have won four of the last five head-to-head encounters, with one draw. Those five matches produced 12 goals in total, and Chelsea have not won any of them.

A win for either side would take them to nine points from three games. A draw leaves both on seven points from three. Arsenal sit third in the table, Chelsea fourth, but Manchester City have already played three and lead on nine points. Hull, also on three games, are second with seven points. Both Arsenal and Chelsea have a game in hand on the top two.

What the market sees

The 55.8 per cent win probability for Arsenal is a strong home tilt, but not overwhelming given the head-to-head record. Chelsea's 20.3 per cent is low for a side that has won four of its last five, but the market is reading the recent meetings, four Arsenal wins in five, as a pattern that holds. The draw sits at 23.9 per cent, which is narrow for two sides on identical points. The market expects a result, and it expects Arsenal to deliver it. The form says Chelsea are the sharper side right now; the history says Arsenal own this fixture. The percentages back history.

Confirmed line-ups

Arsenal (4-2-3-1): David Raya, Ben White, Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Magalhães, Ezri Konsa, Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, Declan Rice, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Christos Tzolis, Kai Havertz

Chelsea (3-4-2-1): Emiliano Martínez, Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana, Josh Acheampong, Pedro Neto, Reece James, Jorrel Hato, Romeo Lavia, Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, João Pedro

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.