Azerbaijan host Liechtenstein in Nations League

Form and recent meetings

Azerbaijan's last five results show two wins, two draws and one loss, a run that includes a 1-0 victory in their most recent outing and a 2-1 win before that. Liechtenstein, by contrast, have lost all five, conceding ten goals and scoring none across that stretch. The most recent of those defeats came by a 2-0 margin, the fourth time in five matches they have failed to find the net.

The three recorded meetings between the sides have all gone Azerbaijan's way or ended level. The most recent, in 2013, finished 1-0; before that came a 2-0 win in 2009 and a goalless draw in 2008. Those three fixtures produced three goals in total, none of them for Liechtenstein.

What the market expects

The market-implied probabilities put an Azerbaijan win at 82.5 per cent, a draw at 12.4 per cent and a Liechtenstein victory at 5.2 per cent. That distribution aligns with what the form suggests: the hosts have been difficult to beat lately, the visitors have been beaten repeatedly, and the head-to-head record offers no encouragement for an upset. There is no daylight between the numbers and the recent evidence.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.