Belgium host France with head-to-head record to reverse

Five straight defeats

Belgium have lost all five recorded meetings between the sides, the most recent a 2-1 reverse in October 2024. Those fixtures produced 12 goals in total, but none of them came in Belgium's favour when it mattered. The hosts arrive with four wins from their last five recent matches, including a 2-0 victory over Italy that opened this Nations League campaign. France have three wins and two defeats across the same span, the losses coming against Spain and England.

What the market expects

The market-implied result probability has France as favourites at 49.5 per cent, with Belgium at 26.8 and the draw at 23.7. That assessment sits square with the head-to-head sequence: France have won every time the data records them meeting, and the market expects that pattern to hold in Brussels. Belgium's recent form, four wins in five, has not shifted the weighting enough to make this a coin toss. A win for either side would take them to six points from two matches; a draw leaves both on four.

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