Club Brugge v Aston Villa: Champions League opener

Form points in opposite directions

Club Brugge arrive with three wins from their last five matches, including a 1-0 victory in their most recent outing. Aston Villa have lost four of their last five and drawn the other, a sequence that includes a 4-0 defeat and three consecutive single-goal losses before a goalless draw last time out.

The three previous meetings between the clubs produced eight goals, with Villa winning the two most recent by 3-0 and 3-1, and Brugge taking the earlier encounter 1-0.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability has Aston Villa as slight favourites at 39.0 per cent, with Club Brugge at 34.8 per cent and the draw at 26.2 per cent. That narrow gap sits oddly against the recent results: Villa have not won in five, while Brugge have won three of the same number. The market is pricing something the form line does not show, whether that reflects the head-to-head record, the gap in recent Champions League experience, or something else the numbers here do not capture is unclear. A win for either side would take them to three points from one match; a draw leaves both on one point.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.