Denmark host Wales looking to end losing run

Recent form points one way

Denmark have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five matches, a run that includes a 4-0 victory over North Macedonia and a 2-1 win against Ukraine. Wales have not won any of their last five, drawing three and losing two. Their most recent win in any competition came before this sequence began.

The head-to-head record is one-sided. Denmark have won three of the four meetings between the sides, the most recent a 4-0 victory in June 2021. Wales's sole win in this sample came in November 2008. The four matches produced ten goals in total.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability has Denmark as clear favourites at 64.8 per cent, with the draw at 21.0 per cent and a Wales win at 14.2 per cent. That assessment aligns with both the recent form and the historical record: Denmark have the better run of results, they hold the advantage in past meetings, and they are at home. There is no tension between what the numbers expect and what the results suggest.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.