Everton v Chelsea: two mid-table sides level on points

Two clubs, one total

Everton sit fifth, Chelsea sixth, and the gap is goal difference alone, three for the home side, two for the visitors. The gap to the top is wider: Manchester City lead on eighteen points, eight clear of this pair.

Everton are unbeaten in their last five recent matches, with two wins and three draws. Chelsea have won two and lost two in the same span, most recently beating one side 5-1 and losing to another 3-0. The contrast in consistency is sharper than the table suggests.

The five meetings between these clubs produced twelve goals. Everton won the most recent 3-0; before that Chelsea took two and a draw came between. One of those earlier meetings finished 6-0, which accounts for half the goals in the set.

What the market sees

The market-implied probability gives Chelsea the edge at 43.6 per cent, Everton 30.5 and the draw 25.9. That spread favours the visitors despite Everton's unbeaten run and home advantage, and it sits oddly against Chelsea's recent volatility, two heavy wins, two defeats by an aggregate of five goals.

The discrepancy is the sharper fact here: Everton have not lost in five, yet the market treats them as the underdog by thirteen percentage points. Whether that reflects the 3-0 win being an outlier in the head-to-head record, or simply that Chelsea's ceiling is higher when the performance arrives, is the question the ninety minutes will settle.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.