Georgia host Ukraine with little to separate the sides

What the form says

Georgia have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five recent matches, the defeat coming last Wednesday against Northern Ireland. Ukraine arrive with three wins and two defeats from their last five, the most recent a 1-0 win over Hungary on the same night Georgia lost. Neither side has strung together the sort of run that would tilt expectations decisively.

The five meetings between these two have produced 13 goals and a pattern that favours Ukraine narrowly: two wins for the visitors, two draws, one defeat. The most recent pair ended 1-1 in November 2024 and 1-0 to Ukraine the month before. The earlier fixtures stretch back more than a decade, all of them close.

The market's view

The market-implied probability gives Georgia a 36.3 per cent chance of winning at home, Ukraine 34.3 per cent and the draw 29.4. That two-point gap between home and away win is about as tight as these measurements get for a fixture with a designated host, and it tracks the head-to-head record and the recent form almost exactly. There is no disagreement here: the data and the market both expect this to be narrow, and neither has much conviction about which way it tips.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.