BUR1
MID1
MIL0
WXM3
QPR2
CAR1
WBA1
CHA1
FALK1
RAN2
CEL3
ABE0
DUN1
STJ1
KIL0
STM1
MOT3
DUN0
IPS
LIV
LCL
MAN
HIBS
HOMIpswich Town - Liverpool
Ipswich Town v Liverpool: market picks visitors despite draw run
Liverpool travel to Portman Road on Friday night with two points from two games, level on goal difference and one place below Ipswich, who have three points from the same number of matches. The visitors have drawn three of their last five recent matches, but the market still prices them as heavy favourites.
Form and expectation pulling different ways
Ipswich won four of their last five recent matches before losing heavily in the most recent, while Liverpool have drawn three of their last five, winning one. That sequence has left the visitors on two points from two played, a win here would take them to five from three, a draw to three from three. Ipswich sit one point better off: three from two, rising to six from three with a win or four from three with a draw.
The market-implied probability makes Liverpool a 62.9 per cent chance, against 17.5 per cent for an Ipswich win and 19.6 per cent for a draw. That confidence sits oddly against the recent results, Ipswich's four wins in five suggest momentum, Liverpool's three draws suggest the opposite, but it may reflect the wider squad strength a team expected to challenge brings to Portman Road, or the fact that Barcola to Liverpool: the numbers behind the deal added a significant name to the visitors' options in the window just closed.
Head-to-head record heavily one-sided
The five meetings above produced twenty goals in total, and Ipswich lost four of them, drawing one. The most recent two both ended in defeat, and three of the five were decided by margins of four goals or more. Nothing in that sequence suggests home advantage will be enough to overturn the market's view, though Ipswich's recent run of four wins does at least offer a platform their earlier meetings with Liverpool did not.
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