Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest: visitors favoured despite table position

Form and position

Ipswich have won two of their last five recent matches and lost three, most recently going down 2-3 v Manchester City. A win here would take them to twelve points from eight matches. Forest have won one, drawn one and lost three in the same span, their last three all ending in defeat, the most recent a 1-0 reverse against Arsenal. Victory would lift them to eight points from eight, a draw to six.

The gap is four points but the table shows nine places between them. Forest have the same goal difference, minus four, and the same number of matches played, but half the wins.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability has Forest as favourites at 42.6 per cent, Ipswich at 30.0 and the draw at 27.4. That reverses what the table and recent results suggest: the hosts sit nine places higher, have four more points and have won one more match in their last five than the visitors. The disagreement is the sharpest feature of the fixture. Forest have lost their last three, Ipswich have won two of their last five, yet the pricing favours the side closer to the bottom three.

The five meetings listed produced thirteen goals in total. Ipswich have not won any of them, two draws, three defeats, and have not kept a clean sheet in the set. Whether that record explains the market's view or whether something else does is not recorded, but the numbers and the form point in opposite directions.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.