Rivals don't expect City in the league next season

The commission's decision, published last week, is the most serious sanction threat ever levelled at a club of City's size in the modern Premier League era. The exact breakdown of findings across the nine seasons hasn't been laid out in full, but the scale alone, nearly a decade of competitions, separates this from any previous Premier League financial case.

City have already confirmed they will appeal, and that process is now the only thing standing between the club and a punishment severe enough to include potential expulsion from the division. Sky Sports reports that opposing clubs are quietly working on the assumption the appeal does not succeed, even without official confirmation of what comes next.

None of this is visible on the pitch yet. Pep Guardiola's side have opened the season with five wins out of five, a +8 goal difference, and sit first in the table. The squad built around that run is valued at close to EUR 1.4 billion across 33 players, with a net spend of minus EUR 152m this window, and six academy graduates still in the matchday picture. It is, by every footballing measure, business as usual at the Etihad.

That contrast, boardroom crisis against on-field dominance, is exactly what makes this story so unusual. English football has punished clubs before, points deductions, transfer embargoes, even relegation in isolated cases lower down the pyramid. It has never had to contemplate removing a reigning Premier League force while that force is winning every game in front of it.

What happens next depends entirely on a hearing that hasn't happened yet. The timeline for City's appeal and the strength of their case haven't been detailed publicly, and anyone predicting the outcome is guessing. What is clear is that rival boardrooms are already planning for a version of next season that doesn't include Manchester City.