MIL0
NEW1
BOU4
LCN0
CRY3
MID0
LEY1
BRD3
SUN1
HUL0
BOL2
WHU3
BLK1
SHU2
CAR1
STK1
SOU3
SWA1
WAT2
PNE1
WXM1
BUR1
DOR3
VIL2
FCP0
MNC2
LILL2
BET3Napoli - Arsenal
Napoli v Arsenal: market sees rout in Champions League opener
Both sides begin their Champions League campaign at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Wednesday evening, neither yet having played a match in the competition proper this season. Arsenal arrive with four wins from their last five matches; Napoli have lost two of their last five.
Form points one way, the market agrees
The market-implied probability has Arsenal winning at 60.0%, with Napoli given just 15.9%. That assessment tracks the recent results: Arsenal have won four of their last five, while Napoli have won two of their last five and lost their last two. The gap is wide enough that the draw, at 24.1%, sits closer to a Napoli win than to parity.
Arsenal's recent sequence includes a 3-0 win over MNC and a 2-1 victory over CHE, the latter coming after Arsenal's one change for the Chelsea derby. Napoli's last outing was a 2-3 defeat to INT, following a 1-2 loss to COMO. Between August and early September they also beat ARI 6-2 and GEN 2-0, but the momentum has since turned.
What the head-to-head says
The four meetings on record produced seven goals in total, and Napoli have won once in that span, a 2-0 victory in 2013. Arsenal won the other three, including a 1-0 and a 2-0 in 2019. The sample is old and the context unknown, but the direction is consistent with what the market expects here.
We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.
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