Newcastle United v Everton: Premier League preview

Where they stand

Newcastle have won two and lost three of their last five recent matches, the most recent a 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa. Everton arrive with two wins and two draws from their last five, though they lost 2-0 to Chelsea last time out. The hosts sit eleventh on eight points; a win would lift them to eleven from eight, level with Everton if the visitors lose. A draw leaves Newcastle on nine points from eight and Everton on eleven from eight, still three clear.

Flagside reported last week that Newcastle won't sack Jaissle, for now, and the pressure on the home side is visible in the table. Everton, eighth on ten points, have steadied after an uneven opening stretch but remain closer to mid-table than the top six, five points behind sixth-placed Brentford with a game in hand on some above them.

Head to head and the market

The five most recent meetings contain fifteen goals in total, and Newcastle have won once, drawn once and lost three times in that span. Their sole win in the sequence was a 4-1 result; the three defeats include a 3-1 loss in August and a 3-2 reverse in February.

The market-implied probability gives Newcastle a 43.2 per cent chance of winning at home, Everton 31.0 per cent and the draw 25.8 per cent. That narrow home advantage sits against a head-to-head record weighted the other way and recent form that favours the visitors, who have lost one of their last five while Newcastle have lost three. The market sees a tight game, and the numbers underneath it agree.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.