Northern Ireland host Hungary in Nations League at Windsor Park

What the numbers say

Northern Ireland have won two of their last five matches, drawn one and lost two. Hungary arrive with three wins, one draw and one defeat across the same span, though their most recent outing ended in a 1-0 defeat. That recent-form edge has not translated into a decisive market view: the gap between a Northern Ireland win and a Hungary win is 1.2 percentage points, which is as close to a coin toss as pre-match probabilities produce.

The four meetings on record have produced eight goals and a mixed set of results: Northern Ireland have won one, drawn one and lost two. The most recent encounter in 2022 finished 0-1 in Hungary's favour. Neither side has won consecutive matches in this series, and none of the four meetings produced more than two goals for the winning team.

The market's view

When three outcomes are separated by 1.5 percentage points, the market is saying it has no strong conviction about what happens next. Northern Ireland's home advantage is priced in, the 34.9 per cent win probability is the highest of the three, but only just. Hungary's superior recent record has not pushed their win probability above the home side's, which suggests the venue is doing enough work to level the picture. The draw sits almost exactly between the two, which is consistent with a match the market expects to be tight and with neither side able to impose themselves for ninety minutes.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.