Sweden host Romania as Nations League campaign begins

What the form says

Sweden have won one of their last five matches, drawing twice and losing twice. The run includes France grind past Sweden, Paraguay awaits and a 1-5 defeat to the Netherlands in June. Romania have won two of their last five, including a 7-1 victory over San Marino in November and a 2-1 win over Wales in June, but also lost twice, to Turkey and Slovakia, in the spring.

The head-to-head record leans Sweden's way. The four meetings on record produced ten goals, and Sweden have won twice, drawn once and lost once. The most recent encounter, in November 2019, finished 2-0 to Sweden.

Where the market disagrees

The market-implied probability gives Sweden a 64.3 per cent chance of winning, against 15.3 per cent for Romania and 20.4 per cent for the draw. That confidence sits oddly against Sweden's recent run: one win in five is not the form of a team that should be expected to win nearly two matches out of three. Romania's record over the same stretch is marginally better, and the gap in the market's assessment is wide enough to notice. Either the head-to-head history is doing more work than it should, or the market knows something the results do not show.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.