Austria host Israel as Nations League campaign opens

Recent form points different ways

Austria have won two of their last five matches but lost their most recent outing 3-0 to Spain in early July. Before that came a 3-3 draw with Algeria and a 2-0 defeat to Argentina, sandwiched between June victories over Tunisia and Jordan. Israel's last five show two wins, two draws and one defeat, the loss a 3-0 reverse to Italy in October. Their most recent result was a 1-0 win over Albania in early June, and they also beat Moldova 4-1 in November.

The four meetings between these sides have produced 23 goals in total. Austria won 4-2 in the most recent encounter in November 2021, having lost 2-5 three months earlier. The two meetings in 2019 split the same way: Austria won 3-1 in October before losing 2-4 in March. None of the four was settled by fewer than two goals.

Market expectation

The market-implied probability gives Austria a 66.4 per cent chance of victory, with the draw at 19.4 per cent and an Israel win at 14.3 per cent. That two-in-three expectation for the home side sits higher than recent results alone would suggest, Austria have won two of five, Israel the same, and reflects the weight placed on home advantage and the gulf the market sees between the squads. The four previous meetings offered no pattern the probability could lean on: two wins apiece, and every scoreline wide open.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.