Italy host Belgium as Nations League opens in Rome

Recent meetings point one way

Italy have won four of the last five encounters between these sides and drawn the other, a run that includes a 1-0 victory in the most recent meeting last November. Those five matches produced 13 goals in total, and the pattern has held across different competitions and venues. Belgium's last win in this fixture came outside the period recorded here.

Both teams arrive with identical recent form: three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five matches. Italy closed that run with consecutive 1-0 victories, while Belgium won three in a row before losing to Spain in their most recent outing.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability has Italy as favourites at 42.2 per cent, with Belgium at 30.9 per cent and the draw at 26.9 per cent. That spread gives the hosts an edge of just over eleven percentage points, a modest margin that reflects two sides the numbers consider closely matched despite Italy's dominance in recent head-to-head meetings. The gap between what has happened in this fixture and what the market expects is the sharpest detail here: five meetings without a Belgium win, yet the visitors are given better than a one-in-three chance on Friday.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.