Leeds United v Crystal Palace: home side favoured in form clash

What the table and the form say

Leeds have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five recent matches, the defeat a 3-6 reverse against Chelsea followed by a 4-1 win over Newcastle. A win here would take them to eleven points from five; a draw to nine. Palace have won three and lost two of their last five, the wins including a 4-0 result against Lech Poznań and a 3-0 against Middlesbrough, but defeats to Ipswich and Manchester City either side. A win would lift them to six points from five.

The five head-to-head meetings contain sixteen goals in total. The most recent finished 0-0; before that Leeds won 4-1. Palace won 5-1 in April 2023, the heaviest result in the sequence, and 2-1 six months earlier. The other meeting was drawn 1-1.

The betting angle

The market gives Leeds a 55.2 per cent chance of winning, the draw 24.3 per cent and Palace 20.5 per cent. That preference for the home side tracks the league positions, fourth against seventeenth, positive goal difference against negative, but Palace's three wins from five recent matches sit oddly against being given roughly one chance in five here. The gap between what the table shows and what the last fortnight has produced is the sharpest contrast in the numbers, and it runs against the market's judgement rather than with it.

Confirmed line-ups

Leeds United (3-5-2): James Trafford, Tarik Muharemovic, James Justin, Nico Elvedi, Ao Tanaka, Anton Stach, Ethan Ampadu, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Jayden Bogle, Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1): Walter Benítez, Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Adam Wharton, Quinten Timber, Tyrick Mitchell, Anan Khalaili, Jørgen Strand Larsen, Yéremy Pino, Daichi Kamada

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.