Liverpool host Atlético Madrid in Champions League opener

Recent meetings favour Liverpool

The head-to-head record tilts sharply towards the home side. Liverpool have won three of the last five meetings between the clubs, losing the other two, with all five matches producing 18 goals in total. The most recent encounter ended 3-2 in Liverpool's favour in September 2025, continuing a pattern of high-scoring contests whenever these sides meet.

Liverpool's recent form shows resilience without dominance, two wins in their last five, but three draws suggesting they have been difficult to beat rather than irresistible. Atlético's 3-0 defeat in their most recent outing interrupts what had been a strong run of three wins from four, and the timing is awkward ahead of a trip to Anfield.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability puts Liverpool as clear favourites at 55.6%, with the draw at 23.2% and an Atlético win at 21.2%. That assessment aligns with home advantage and the head-to-head pattern, but the gap is not vast, the market sees this as a contest Liverpool should edge, not a foregone conclusion. The hosts' recent draw habit and Atlético's heavy defeat last time out both appear priced in, leaving the probabilities in line with what the form suggests: Liverpool likelier to win, but far from certain to do so.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.