Luxembourg host Iceland in Nations League

Form and recent meetings

Luxembourg arrive with three wins from their last five matches, including a 1-0 victory over Albania earlier this month and back-to-back wins over Malta in March. Iceland have not won any of their last five, suffering defeats to Argentina, Japan and Mexico while drawing twice.

The three head-to-head meetings above contain eight goals in total. Luxembourg won the most recent competitive encounter 3-1 in September 2023, having drawn 1-1 a month earlier. The only other recorded meeting was a 1-1 draw in 2009.

What the market expects

The market-implied result probability has Iceland as favourites at 40.2 per cent, with Luxembourg at 30.8 per cent and the draw at 28.9 per cent. That makes Iceland the likelier winner, but the gap is narrow, barely ten percentage points separates the two sides. Set against Iceland's winless run through five matches and Luxembourg's three victories in the same span, the market is pricing in something closer than the recent results alone would suggest.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.