Newcastle United v AFC Bournemouth: hosts chase third win

Two wins in five

Newcastle have won two of their last five recent matches, drawing twice and losing once. That run includes a 2-0 victory over Tottenham and a 2-2 draw with Liverpool that Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool: Szoboszlai rescues Iraola's league debut reported at the time. Four points from two played leaves them seventh, two points behind the cluster at the top but level with Brentford in sixth. A win here would take them to seven points from three matches.

Bournemouth have not won any of their last five, drawing three and losing two. One point from two league fixtures puts them fourteenth. A victory on Tyneside would lift them to four points from three; another draw keeps them on two.

Five meetings, sixteen goals

The last five head-to-head meetings contain sixteen goals in total. Newcastle have lost two of those five and drawn the other three, never winning. The most recent encounter finished 1-2; before that came a 3-3 draw, then a goalless stalemate, then a 1-4 defeat, then a 1-1 draw. None of the last five has been settled by more than a single goal when it has been settled at all.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability gives Newcastle a 44.4 per cent chance of winning, Bournemouth 29.8 per cent and the draw 25.8 per cent. That makes the hosts clear favourites, but the head-to-head record points the other way: three draws and two away wins from the last five is the opposite of home dominance. The difference between what the market expects and what these two have actually done when they meet is the sharpest split in the data.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.