Newcastle United v Aston Villa: Premier League preview

Recent form points different ways

Newcastle's last five recent matches brought two wins, one draw and two losses, the defeats both heavy, 4-1 reversals in their most recent outing and earlier in the sequence. Villa, by contrast, have won four and drawn one of their last five, the latest a 6-0 victory. The contrast is sharp: Newcastle have been inconsistent, Villa have found momentum.

The head-to-head record over the last five meetings is more balanced. Those fixtures produced 14 goals in total, and Newcastle have won two, lost two and drawn one. The most recent meeting in February ended 3-1 to Newcastle; the one before that went 2-0 to Villa. Neither side has established a pattern of dominance.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability gives Newcastle a 41.6 per cent chance of winning at home, Aston Villa 32.5 per cent and the draw 25.9 per cent. That makes Newcastle favourites, but not by a wide margin, the gap between a home win and an away win is nine percentage points, less than the probability assigned to a draw.

The numbers sit uneasily with Villa's recent form. A side that has won four in a row and just put six past an opponent is being given roughly a one-in-three chance of winning, while Newcastle, who lost 4-1 last time out, are rated better than two-in-five. The market is weighing home advantage and league position more heavily than the direction each team is travelling. A win would take Newcastle to 11 points from seven matches; Villa would reach eight from seven with three points here.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.