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CARArsenal - Leeds United
Arsenal v Leeds United: second meets fifth at the Emirates
Arsenal sit second on twelve points after five matches, three clear of a Leeds side that has drawn three of its last five. The gap in recent head-to-head meetings is wider still: Arsenal have won all five, scoring eighteen goals across them.
Written with AI and checked automatically before publishing. How we work
Five in a row, eighteen goals
Arsenal have won the last five meetings between these sides, the most recent a 4-0 win in January. Across those five matches they have scored eighteen goals. Leeds have not taken a point in these five meetings, and the market reflects it: the market implies a 67.8 per cent chance of an Arsenal win, the draw at 19.5, the Leeds win at 12.7. That is not a market finding value in an upset. It is a market that has watched the same five results everyone else has.
Leeds arrive with nine points from five matches, level on goal difference with Arsenal but three points behind. A win would take them to twelve points from six and cut the gap to nothing; a draw moves them to ten. The problem is the form line. One win in the last five, three draws, one defeat, and that win, 4-1 against Newcastle, sits between a 6-3 loss v Chelsea and a goalless draw v Crystal Palace. Arsenal lost their last match 3-0 v Brighton, but won the four before that.
What the market sees
The 67.8 per cent home-win probability is high but not extreme, and the history supports it. Arsenal have won four of their last five, Leeds one of theirs. Arsenal have won every recent meeting. The only tension is whether a heavy defeat at Brighton changes anything, and the market has decided it does not. A Leeds win at 12.7 per cent is possible but requires something the recent record does not show: a way to score when the last meeting ended 4-0 and the one before that 5-0. The draw at 19.5 per cent is the percentage that fits the away form, three draws in five suggests Leeds can frustrate opponents, but Arsenal have been sharper than that.
We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.
Will Leeds finally break their five-match losing streak against Arsenal?
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