Aston Villa v Brentford: Premier League preview

The table tells one story, the form another

Brentford sit fourth with 9 points from five games, their goal difference of plus-six. Villa are sixteenth with 4 points from the same number of matches, goal difference minus-five. Yet Villa have won four of their last five recent matches, most recently beating Sevilla 3-1, while Brentford's unbeaten run is built on three consecutive draws before back-to-back wins against Reading and Chelsea. The contrast is sharp: one side climbing the table on resilience, the other winning often but sitting low.

What the market sees

The market-implied probability has Brentford fractionally ahead at 38.0%, Villa at 35.2% and the draw at 26.8%. That narrow spread reflects the tension in the numbers, Brentford's league position and unbeaten record against Villa's recent run of victories. A win would take Villa to 7 points from six games, still well short of Brentford's current tally; defeat leaves them on 4 points from six. For Brentford, victory means 12 points from six and a grip on the top four; a draw takes them to 10 points, defeat leaves them on 9 from six.

The five meetings between the sides contain 9 goals in total..

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.