AZ Alkmaar host Hapoel Be'er Sheva in Europa League

The table position

AZ's opening defeat leaves them with a goal difference of minus one and work to do if they are to climb into the upper half of the standings. A win here would take them to three points from two matches; a draw would leave them on one point from two. Hapoel Be'er's single point puts them seven places higher, though still outside the positions that typically signal comfort at this stage. Victory would lift them to four points from two games, a draw to two points.

The hosts have won two of their last five recent matches, drawn one and lost two, including a 2-0 reverse in their most recent outing. Hapoel Be'er have won three of their last five, drawn one and lost one, though their most recent fixture ended goalless.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability gives AZ a 72.3 per cent chance of taking all three points, against 11.2 per cent for an away win and 16.5 per cent for a draw. That confidence sits at odds with the hosts' form: two defeats in five recent matches and no points from their Europa League opener suggest a side not yet settled. Hapoel Be'er's superior run, three wins in five, and the point already banked make the gap between expectation and evidence wider than usual. The market is pricing in a home advantage that the numbers have yet to justify.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.