Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal: Champions League opener

Form and recent meetings

Dortmund arrive with three wins from their last five recent matches, including a 5-0 victory over HEB and a 3-2 win over TSG in their most recent outing. Villarreal's form is less convincing: one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five, with back-to-back losses in their last two matches.

The head-to-head record tilts decisively toward the hosts. Dortmund won the most recent meeting 4-0 in November 2025, part of a sequence that also includes a 2-2 draw in August 2024 and a 2-0 defeat in July 2022. The three meetings above contain 10 goals in total.

What the market expects

The market-implied result probability has Dortmund as clear favourites at 54.0 per cent, with Villarreal given a 23.3 per cent chance of an away win and the draw at 22.7 per cent. That assessment sits comfortably with the form lines: Dortmund have won three of their last five, Villarreal one, and the hosts carry a 4-0 win from the most recent meeting into a fixture where they are expected to control proceedings. The probability and the recent record point the same way.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.