San Marino host Finland looking to end losing run

Recent form points one way

San Marino's recent record makes difficult reading: four defeats in five, including a 7-1 loss in November and three consecutive two-goal margins since March. Their only point in that stretch came from a goalless draw in late March. Finland's trajectory has been less consistent, victories over strong opposition earlier in the year have been followed by a 4-0 defeat and a narrow loss in June, but two wins from five still represents a more stable platform.

The four meetings between these sides have produced 18 goals, all of them scored by Finland. The most recent encounter in November 2023 ended 2-1, the tightest margin in the sequence; before that came a 6-0 result in June of the same year. The historical pattern is clear enough, even if the competition each match was played in is not recorded.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability gives Finland an 86.8 per cent chance of victory, with the draw at 9.2 per cent and a San Marino win at 4.0 per cent. That assessment aligns with both the head-to-head record and the recent form: Finland have won all four previous meetings, and San Marino have managed one draw in five outings. There is no tension between what the numbers expect and what the results suggest, the question is whether the hosts can produce the kind of defensive organisation that held them to a clean sheet in March, or whether the pattern of the other four recent matches reasserts itself.

Confirmed line-ups

San Marino (4-3-3): Edoardo Colombo, Marco Pasolini, Michele Cevoli, Alessandro Tosi, Filippo Fabbri, Lorenzo Capicchioni, Samuele Zannoni, Alessandro Golinucci, Nicola Nanni, Cristian Meloni, Nicolas Giacopetti

Finland (4-3-3): Viljami Sinisalo, Ville Koski, Tony Miettinen, Juho Lähteenmäki, Adrian Svanbäck, Adam Markhiev, Kaan Kairinen, Leo Walta, Benjamin Kallman, Joel Pohjanpalo, Topi Keskinen

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.