Iceland host Estonia as Nations League campaign opens

Form and recent meetings

Iceland have lost three and drawn two of their last five recent matches, conceding ten goals across defeats to Mexico, Japan and Argentina. Estonia's record over the same period reads one win, two draws and two losses, including a 4-2 victory over Cyprus but also a 4-1 defeat to Norway.

The teams have met five times previously, producing seven goals in total. Three of those encounters finished level, most recently a 1-1 draw in January 2023, with Iceland winning once and Estonia once. Three of the five meetings have ended 1-1, 1-0 or 0-0, suggesting a pattern of tight margins between the sides.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability gives Iceland a 73.5 per cent chance of victory, with the draw at 16.8 per cent and an Estonia win at 9.7 per cent. That confidence in the home side sits oddly against their recent results: three defeats in five is hardly the foundation for three-in-four certainty. Estonia's win over Cyprus and two draws in five offer marginally more encouragement than Iceland's sequence, yet the market sees this as heavily one-sided. The disagreement is stark enough to be the story, either the market is pricing in context the recent results do not capture, or it is overweighting home advantage and underweighting current form.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.