Bulgaria host Luxembourg in Plovdiv

Form points both ways

Bulgaria's recent stretch shows three wins, one draw and one defeat, the same tally Luxembourg carry into the fixture. The hosts' wins include a 10-2 result and a narrow 1-0, while their most recent outing ended 2-2. Luxembourg have posted three clean sheets in their three victories and taken nothing from two narrow defeats, both by a single goal.

The five meetings between the pair have produced ten goals and no outright pattern: Bulgaria won twice, both by a single goal, and the other three finished level. The most recent encounter ended 1-0; the one before that and the one four years earlier both finished goalless.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability gives Bulgaria a 41.2 per cent chance of winning, the draw 29.9 per cent and a Luxembourg victory 28.9 per cent. That spread is narrow, the gap between a home win and an away win is twelve percentage points, and all three outcomes sit within thirteen points of each other. The numbers do not reflect a mismatch, and the recent form offers no reason they should: both sides have won three of five, and the head-to-head record since 2016 contains two Bulgaria wins and three draws from five attempts. The market and the results agree that this is a contest without a clear favourite.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.