Southampton v Portsmouth: south-coast derby with form diverging

Recent form points different ways

Southampton have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five recent matches, including a 3-1 win over Swansea and a 4-1 victory against Bristol City. Portsmouth's last five show one win, two draws and two defeats, with back-to-back draws against Charlton and Blackburn following a 2-0 win over Cardiff. A Southampton win would take them to thirteen points from nine matches; Portsmouth would reach eleven from eight with three points here.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability has Southampton winning at 60.3 per cent, a draw at 21.8 per cent and a Portsmouth victory at 17.9 per cent. That reflects a clear home advantage, though Portsmouth's game deficit means their points-per-match rate is closer than the raw total suggests. The five head-to-head meetings above contain twelve goals in total, the most recent two finishing 1-1 and 0-0.

Southampton's season has been disrupted by Southampton's weird Spygate saga is finally over, a backdrop that makes reading their early-season form harder than the numbers alone would suggest. Portsmouth arrive having drawn two in a row, a run that steadied them after consecutive defeats to Bristol City and Derby.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.