Aston Villa v Fenerbahce: Champions League preview

Form and recent meetings

Villa have won three of their last five recent matches, drawing one and losing one. That run includes a 3-1 victory over Sevilla on 2 October and a 2-2 draw with Brentford last Thursday, covered here. Fenerbahce have won three and drawn two of their last five, conceding nothing in their past three matches, victories over Eyupspor, Turkspor and Caykur, though that sequence also includes two goalless draws in mid-September.

The sides met once before, in January, when Villa won 1-0. That meeting produced one goal in total.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability gives Villa a 58.1 per cent chance of victory, with the draw at 22.8 per cent and a Fenerbahce win at 19.1 per cent. That assessment tracks Villa's home advantage and their current position in the table, but it leaves nearly two chances in five for a draw or an away result, a wider spread than the form gap might suggest. Fenerbahce's unbeaten run in recent matches, even if the opposition is not recorded, sits behind that margin.

A Villa win would take them to six points from two played, putting them level with the early leaders. A defeat leaves them on three points from two; a draw on four. Fenerbahce would reach four points from two with a victory, two with a draw, or remain on one point from two with a loss.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.