Latvia host Cyprus in Riga as both sides chase recovery

Recent form points both ways

Latvia's last five matches brought victories over Gibraltar twice, 1-0 on both occasions, and a goalless draw, but the sequence ended with a 2-0 defeat to Armenia in their most recent match. Cyprus also claimed two wins in their last five, beating Moldova 3-2 and Liechtenstein 2-0, either side of a 1-1 draw with Slovenia. Their most recent outing also ended in defeat, 2-1 to Montenegro.

The sides met in March 2024 and drew 1-1. The 1 head-to-head meeting on record contains 2 goals in total. Neither side has built a run of consistent results, and the pattern over the last five matches, two wins, a draw and two defeats apiece, suggests little to separate them in Riga.

What the market expects

The market-implied probabilities give Latvia a narrow edge at home, with a 36.4 per cent chance of victory against Cyprus's 35.0 per cent. A draw sits at 28.6 per cent, leaving the three outcomes bunched more tightly than the recent form alone might suggest. The home advantage is priced in, but only just. When the market sees this little daylight between two sides, it is usually because the numbers that matter, recent results, head-to-head record, underlying quality, all point to a contest without a clear favourite.

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.